With barely two years to Nigeria’s next general election, the political atmosphere is already heating up. Meetings are being held behind closed doors, alliances are being whispered about, and defections are making headlines almost weekly. Yet, amid all this activity, many Nigerians are beginning to ask an uncomfortable but necessary question: is Nigeria’s opposition truly serious about winning power in 2027, or is it simply rehearsing the same old drama?
At the heart of this doubt is a familiar pattern one Nigerians have seen repeatedly since 2015. Political parties that claim to be alternatives to the ruling party often appear more focused on individual ambition than collective strategy. Instead of building strong institutions, clear ideologies, and united fronts, opposition parties frequently descend into internal battles, personality clashes, and last-minute coalitions driven by convenience rather than conviction.
A Test of Credibility, Not Just Competition
Campaign mode began early in Nigeria long before official INEC timetables with top opposition figures like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi forming a coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027. Yet despite this headline, unity appears more tactical than ideological.
Defections from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) to the APC have intensified, eroding once-solid opposition bases. Governors including Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta and others have crossed over, citing internal party failures and political survival.
This mass movement away from opposition ranks isn’t just unsettling it signals a crisis of purpose.
When Ambition Outruns Strategy
Defections themselves aren’t un-democratic. But when they signal institutional weakness, they raise alarm about the opposition’s ability to present a cohesive alternative government. The LP has lost more than 20 lawmakers in a year amid leadership turmoil. The PDP suffers from leadership tug-of-wars and legal battles that dampen its competitiveness.
Meanwhile, the ADC energised by big names still lacks a clear, unified policy platform that resonates beyond personalities and foot soldiers of political fandom. Coalitions without policy coherence risk confusion at the polls.
The Voters Aren’t Buying Slogans
Nigerians are no longer passive spectators. Economic hardship, insecurity, and rising costs have sharpened public scrutiny of political platforms not just chants in rallies.
Across social discourse, many Nigerians question whether the opposition’s narrative is ready for the messy business of governance rather than the theatre of out-maneuvering incumbents. What do they stand for, beyond defeating Tinubu? That answer remains unclear to many.
The Voters Are Watching and Remembering
Perhaps the biggest mistake the opposition could make is underestimating Nigerian voters. Despite widespread frustration and hardship, Nigerians are politically aware. Social media, independent journalism, and civic engagement have made it harder for political actors to control narratives.
Young voters in particular are demanding more than slogans. They want to know what the opposition stands for, how it plans to govern differently, and why it deserves another chance. Emotional appeals and last-minute alliances may no longer be enough to inspire confidence.
Beyond 2027
The 2027 election should not just be about winning power; it should be a test of Nigeria’s political maturity. For the opposition, this means moving beyond personality politics and building credible, issue-driven platforms. It means investing in grassroots structures, resolving internal conflicts early, and speaking honestly to Nigerians about difficult reforms.
If the opposition fails to rise to this challenge, it risks repeating a familiar cycle high expectations, internal collapse, and eventual disappointment. But if it chooses a different path, 2027 could mark a turning point not just for opposition politics, but for Nigeria’s democracy itself.
The question remains: is Nigeria’s opposition ready to do the hard work required to earn public trust, or will ambition once again outweigh strategy?
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